Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first visit to Moscow since the start of the Ukrainian war was highly anticipated. For Russia, a show of friendship with an economically strong country is a crucial show of strength as it faces sanctions in almost every aspect of the economy. In an effort to keep Moscow firmly in its camp, Beijing also wants to project Chinese President Xi as a peacemaker with additional diplomatic credentials after the Saudi-Iran deal.
Despite the hype surrounding the visit, the main joint statement issued by Russia and China on the second day of the visit on Tuesday was relatively measured.
Just a week before the start of the Ukraine war last year, the two leaders pledged not to limit the friendship between the two countries. However, this phrase does not appear.
The friendship between two generations has a solid foundation and all-around cooperation between the broad perspectives of both countries. Russia needed a prosperous and stable China, and China needed a strong and successful joint statement by Russia to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership.
The second joint statement is an affirmation of the establishment of stronger economic relations and an extensive list of proposals that are part of a long-term plan to be implemented by 2030.
Russia specifically notes that the two countries could join forces to become world leaders in information technology and artificial intelligence.
Chinese state media highlighted Russia’s increasing use of the renminbi in trade. President Vladimir Putin’s share of the use of the ruble and the yuan has already reached 65% of bilateral trade transactions. It would allow us to protect mutual trade from the influence of third countries and negative trends in Putin’s global currency markets.
According to the summit, Reuter created 14 agreements but did not lead to the conclusion of an agreement on a new gas pipeline from China through Mongolia. China is well placed to negotiate hard, Moscow needs to deal with more of Russia’s majority state-owned multinational energy corporation Gazprom, which wants to compensate China for the collapse of the European market, which accounted for 80% of exports, a Reuters analysis found.
The South China Morning Post noted the joint statement as a more vague reference to the proposed Power Siberia 2 pipeline, while the Russian president claimed it was complete. Citing experts, the newspaper said the new pipeline would further fuel the idea that China and Russia are drawing closer in the face of Western sanctions and confrontations.
The two main narratives in the Western media were the visit showcasing China’s global ambitions and Moscow fully branding itself as a junior partner. A strong China strengthens a weak Russia. That’s the real headline describing the spectacular meeting between the leaders of the two countries this week in Moscow. The Chinese are not yet providing weapons, but Xi is certainly offering moral and psychological support in what could be described as a convalescent visit to a sick relative, David Ignatius wrote in the Washington Post.
For major newspapers like The Guardian and Financial Times, the headline is also about Putin playing second fiddle to Xi Jinping. The Wall Street Journal analyzed China’s willingness to enter the conflict as a new phase in the very vision of the country and its role in the world. It sends the message that China and its friends are no longer obliged to conform to the US-led global order and poses a challenge to Washington, trying to shape a world seen as divided between democracies and autocracies.
As mentioned earlier, China is describing Xi’s visit as a peacemaker, especially following the 12-point peace plan released last month. In a joint statement, Russia welcomed China’s willingness to play an active role in resolving the Ukraine crisis through political and diplomatic means and also appreciated the constructive suggestions made in the Chinese Foreign Ministry document.
The point is that a solution to the Ukraine crisis must respect each country’s reasonable security concerns and avoid the creation of confrontational blocs that add fuel to the flames.
Russia reiterated its readiness to resume peace talks, which China welcomed. A scathing response came from Washington. If China wants to play a constructive role in the conflict, it should pressure Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine, US national security spokesman John Kirby said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters on Tuesday that he had invited China to join the talks, but had not yet received a response. We propose China to become a partner in the implementation of the peace formula. We’ve taken our formula across all channels. We invite your dialogue. Waiting for your reply. We’re getting some signals, but we don’t have any concrete information yet.
In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Beijing’s lack of response to the Ukrainian peace formula is a matter that concerns bilateral relations between China and Ukraine.
President Putin also warned Chinese President Xi that many of the provisions of China’s peace plan on Ukraine can be considered the basis of a Ukrainian settlement and that the West and Kyiv will be ready for it. At the same time, the Russian state news agency TASS pointed out that no such readiness has been observed so far.
The second mentions two countries that have pledged to strengthen coordination on multilateral and trilateral formats such as China-Russia-India. With India also chairing the G-20 joint statement, this does not bode well for reaching a consensus at the September summit. Both sides strongly condemned the politicization of multilateral platforms and the attempts of some countries to squeeze extraordinary topics into the agenda of the multilateral platform and dilute the primary tasks of the relevant mechanisms in the statement.
At the last two G-20 ministerial meetings in India, Russia, and China again do not support the language on the use of Ukraine in the Bali Declaration. The Indian establishment has constantly warned that a tough Western approach to Russia would eventually bring Moscow closer to China. The current involvement in the Ukrainian conflict is therefore no surprise. While India would prefer Russia to distance itself from Beijing’s sphere of influence, it seems highly unlikely in the near future.
According to well-known China watcher Professor Jabin T. Jacob, the fear that Russia will become China’s junior partner is well-founded. While China’s claim to support peace may be beneficial, prolonging the Ukraine conflict would drain Russia politically, economically, and militarily. This would allow China to expand its influence in Eurasia, which has already begun to provide security guarantees to countries such as Kazakhstan and has identified Belarus as an all-weather strategic partner such as Pakistan.
Despite India’s claims to maintain strategic autonomy, it has not been able to translate it into effective use. China was able to push the Iran-Saudi deal and even Japan seems more active compared to the Prime Minister’s visit to Kyiv. With more and more external players active in India’s immediate and wider neighborhood, Professor Jacob says New Delhi’s own ability to take the lead and maneuver in the room is limited.
According to Claude Arpi, a French India-based expert on India-China relations, doubts China’s ability to serve as a mediator and responsible global player. One significant constraint could be that China’s economy has shown signs of slowing down and could act as a hindrance to China’s ambitions on Arpi.
India’s current focus on hosting a smooth G-20 summit in September means navigating turbulent waters, a task that will be challenging.
